The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation
نویسندگان
چکیده
I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a macroeconomics perspective. To highlight unifying themes, develop stylized macroeconomic model that embeds several mechanisms. With short-selling constraints, can generate overvaluation and speculative bubbles. Leverage substantially inflate bubbles, leverage limits depend perceived downside risks. Shifts in beliefs about tail scenarios explain emergence collapse of leveraged Speculative bubbles are related to rational but they match better empirical evidence predictability asset returns. Even without induces procyclical valuation. When affects price aggregate assets, it also influences outcomes such as consumption, investment, output. Speculation boom years reduces prices, demand, output subsequent recession. Macroprudential policies restrict improve stability social welfare.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Annual Review of Economics
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1941-1383', '1941-1391']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-092120-050543